Elon Musk floated a strategy for his hypothetical third political party:
“One way to execute on this would be to laser-focus on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts. Given the razor-thin legislative margins, that would be enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people.”
Musk could truly be onto something significant here. Although a third party might not realistically challenge Democrats and Republicans right away, it holds the potential to shift the balance of power in the House, Senate, and even the White House.
In the quote above, Elon explians how a third party with a modest number of election wins could alter control of Congress. HOWEVER, a third party could rock the boat just as much by losing.
How?
Consider this compelling example of how a seemingly formidable third party can decisively sway a Congressional election and significantly influence the outcome of state races in presidential campaigns.
Bush vs Gore 2000 – Florida
Republican George W. Bush won Florida by a margin of 537 votes out of nearly 6 million cast, defeating Democrat Al Gore in Florida. However, ultra-liberal Ralph Nader, running as the Green Party candidate, received a whopping 97,488 votes in Florida. Needless to say, Gore wins Florida – and the election – if Nader is out of the picture.
Had Nader not run as a popular third-party candidate, some of his 97,488 supporters would have stayed home, but at least a third (32,000) would have participated in the election and supported Gore as he their overwhelming second choice. Just about no one would who voted Nader would have supported Bush. Hence, Gore would have carried Florida by at least 30,000 votes had the left-leaning vote not been split.
Incidentally, Nader received just 1.64 percent of the vote in Florida but it was just enough to influence the race and the election.
We’ve had some tight Congressional races lately. A candidate with a hypothetical 4, 5, or 6 percent cushion today could be vulnerable to losing in November in the event a moderately strong third party came on the scene – Even if the third party candidate received just 10 percent of the vote.
Who would benefit from Musk’s third party?
Had Musk not previously managed DOGE and been so closely aligned with MAGA, a Musk third party would have generated all kinds of fear among Democrats. After all, a lot of left-leaners believe the Democratic party is missing the mark these days. But because of Elon’s controversial background, including his Hitler salutes, and off-the-wall social media posts, left-leaners and a lot of moderates are not likely to be wooed by a party with him as its poster boy.
Could Musk’s third party steal votes from Republican candidates?
The MAGA faction won’t budge. However, there’s a sizeable number of Republican and independent voters who aren’t MAGA but support GOP candidates because they are, for them, the lesser of two evils versus Democrats. If you’re Elon, you’re probably looking at those folks as the lowest-hanging fruit.
As of mid-2025, the percentage of Republicans who identify as MAGA varies somewhat by-poll but generally centers around a slim majority, with figures ranging roughly from 49% to 71%.