And we’re just getting started
Trump’s Inflation Pledge vs. Economic Reality
During his campaign and early presidency, Donald Trump committed to “end inflation” and bring down prices for American families. He made this promise central to his economic agenda, frequently vowing to lower the costs of everyday goods and claiming that his administration would “make America affordable again”.
But despite these promises, recent data reveal a notable uptick in inflation closely tied to Trump’s tariff policies:
- Tariffs Imposed: President Trump enacted sweeping tariffs, including a 10% levy on nearly all imported goods, with threats of higher rates on the horizon.
- June 2025 Data:
- Economists’ Warnings: Experts broadly agree that tariffs are being passed along to consumers, resulting in higher prices at the retail level, with major chains like Walmart and Best Buy warning of more expensive goods ahead.
Table: Recent Inflation Changes
| Month | Year-over-Year Inflation (%) |
|---|---|
| April 2025 | 2.3 |
| May 2025 | 2.4 |
| June 2025 | 2.7 |
Table based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics and recent official releases.
Analysts: More Price Hikes Likely
- Forward Outlook: With further tariff threats looming, economists predict “meaningfully larger increases” in consumer prices in the months ahead.
- Fed’s Response: The Federal Reserve remains cautious, holding interest rates steady as it observes the inflationary effects of the tariffs and warns that price increases may persist as long as the tariffs remain in effect.
Economic and Political Implications
- Trump’s promised end to inflation has so far been undermined by his tariff-driven trade strategy.
- The most recent data show that, rather than easing the cost burden on Americans, import duties are beginning to accelerate price increases across a wide swath of consumer goods.
Many experts caution that the president’s dual objectives—ending inflation and expanding tariffs—are fundamentally at odds, and these conflicts may intensify as further trade actions unfold
Tariffs on imported goods are now at their highest since the Great Depression. And Trump has threatened to further increase taxes on goods from many countries starting August 1.
Although President Trump vowed to end inflation, the latest figures show the opposite: tariffs have directly contributed to a notable surge in prices, raising concerns among economists and the Federal Reserve that Americans should brace for even higher costs soon.